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War and Peace - The Problem with Historical Explanations

Leo Tolstoy

War and Peace

The Problem with Historical Explanations

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Summary

Tolstoy steps back from his story to tackle a big question: what really makes history happen? He examines three types of historians and finds them all lacking. First are the 'great man' historians who say everything happens because of powerful leaders like Napoleon or Alexander. But Tolstoy points out that French historians credit Napoleon while Russian historians credit Alexander for the same events—they can't both be right. Second are the 'universal' historians who try to account for multiple forces, but they contradict themselves constantly, sometimes saying leaders are products of their time, other times saying those same leaders shaped their time. Third are the 'cultural' historians who blame everything on ideas and books, but Tolstoy notes that peaceful philosophies somehow led to violent revolutions, which makes no sense. Each group tries to reduce the movement of millions of people to simple causes, but none can actually explain how their proposed forces connect to mass human behavior. Tolstoy uses the analogy of peasants explaining weather—they blame the wind for both bringing and removing clouds, depending on what fits their current needs. Historians do the same thing with power and causation. This chapter reveals Tolstoy's frustration with how history gets written and explained, setting up his own theory about what really drives human events. It's a masterclass in critical thinking about expertise and the stories we tell ourselves about cause and effect.

Coming Up in Chapter 356

Having demolished the conventional explanations for historical events, Tolstoy is ready to present his own revolutionary theory about what actually moves the masses and shapes human destiny.

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An excerpt from the original text.(complete · 1605 words)

W

hat force moves the nations?

Biographical historians and historians of separate nations understand
this force as a power inherent in heroes and rulers. In their narration
events occur solely by the will of a Napoleon, and Alexander, or in
general of the persons they describe. The answers given by this kind
of historian to the question of what force causes events to happen are
satisfactory only as long as there is but one historian to each event.
As soon as historians of different nationalities and tendencies begin
to describe the same event, the replies they give immediately lose all
meaning, for this force is understood by them all not only differently
but often in quite contradictory ways. One historian says that an
event was produced by Napoleon’s power, another that it was produced by
Alexander’s, a third that it was due to the power of some other person.
Besides this, historians of that kind contradict each other even
in their statement as to the force on which the authority of some
particular person was based. Thiers, a Bonapartist, says that Napoleon’s
power was based on his virtue and genius. Lanfrey, a Republican, says it
was based on his trickery and deception of the people. So the historians
of this class, by mutually destroying one another’s positions, destroy
the understanding of the force which produces events, and furnish no
reply to history’s essential question.

Writers of universal history who deal with all the nations seem to
recognize how erroneous is the specialist historians’ view of the force
which produces events. They do not recognize it as a power inherent in
heroes and rulers, but as the resultant of a multiplicity of variously
directed forces. In describing a war or the subjugation of a people, a
general historian looks for the cause of the event not in the power
of one man, but in the interaction of many persons connected with the
event.

According to this view the power of historical personages, represented
as the product of many forces, can no longer, it would seem, be regarded
as a force that itself produces events. Yet in most cases universal
historians still employ the conception of power as a force that itself
produces events, and treat it as their cause. In their exposition, an
historic character is first the product of his time, and his power only
the resultant of various forces, and then his power is itself a force
producing events. Gervinus, Schlosser, and others, for instance, at one
time prove Napoleon to be a product of the Revolution, of the ideas of
1789 and so forth, and at another plainly say that the campaign of 1812
and other things they do not like were simply the product of Napoleon’s
misdirected will, and that the very ideas of 1789 were arrested in their
development by Napoleon’s caprice. The ideas of the Revolution and the
general temper of the age produced Napoleon’s power. But Napoleon’s
power suppressed the ideas of the Revolution and the general temper of
the age.

This curious contradiction is not accidental. Not only does it occur at
every step, but the universal historians’ accounts are all made up of
a chain of such contradictions. This contradiction occurs because after
entering the field of analysis the universal historians stop halfway.

To find component forces equal to the composite or resultant force, the
sum of the components must equal the resultant. This condition is never
observed by the universal historians, and so to explain the resultant
forces they are obliged to admit, in addition to the insufficient
components, another unexplained force affecting the resultant action.

Specialist historians describing the campaign of 1813 or the restoration
of the Bourbons plainly assert that these events were produced by the
will of Alexander. But the universal historian Gervinus, refuting this
opinion of the specialist historian, tries to prove that the campaign of
1813 and the restoration of the Bourbons were due to other things beside
Alexander’s will—such as the activity of Stein, Metternich, Madame de
Staël, Talleyrand, Fichte, Chateaubriand, and others. The historian
evidently decomposes Alexander’s power into the components: Talleyrand,
Chateaubriand, and the rest—but the sum of the components, that is,
the interactions of Chateaubriand, Talleyrand, Madame de Staël, and the
others, evidently does not equal the resultant, namely the phenomenon
of millions of Frenchmen submitting to the Bourbons. That Chateaubriand,
Madame de Staël, and others spoke certain words to one another only
affected their mutual relations but does not account for the submission
of millions. And therefore to explain how from these relations of theirs
the submission of millions of people resulted—that is, how component
forces equal to one A gave a resultant equal to a thousand times A—the
historian is again obliged to fall back on power—the force he had
denied—and to recognize it as the resultant of the forces, that is, he
has to admit an unexplained force acting on the resultant. And that is
just what the universal historians do, and consequently they not only
contradict the specialist historians but contradict themselves.

Peasants having no clear idea of the cause of rain, say, according to
whether they want rain or fine weather: “The wind has blown the clouds
away,” or, “The wind has brought up the clouds.” And in the same way the
universal historians sometimes, when it pleases them and fits in with
their theory, say that power is the result of events, and sometimes,
when they want to prove something else, say that power produces events.

A third class of historians—the so-called historians of
culture—following the path laid down by the universal historians who
sometimes accept writers and ladies as forces producing events—again
take that force to be something quite different. They see it in what is
called culture—in mental activity.

The historians of culture are quite consistent in regard to their
progenitors, the writers of universal histories, for if historical
events may be explained by the fact that certain persons treated one
another in such and such ways, why not explain them by the fact that
such and such people wrote such and such books? Of the immense number of
indications accompanying every vital phenomenon, these historians select
the indication of intellectual activity and say that this indication is
the cause. But despite their endeavors to prove that the cause of events
lies in intellectual activity, only by a great stretch can one admit
that there is any connection between intellectual activity and the
movement of peoples, and in no case can one admit that intellectual
activity controls people’s actions, for that view is not confirmed by
such facts as the very cruel murders of the French Revolution resulting
from the doctrine of the equality of man, or the very cruel wars and
executions resulting from the preaching of love.

But even admitting as correct all the cunningly devised arguments with
which these histories are filled—admitting that nations are governed by
some undefined force called an idea—history’s essential question still
remains unanswered, and to the former power of monarchs and to the
influence of advisers and other people introduced by the universal
historians, another, newer force—the idea—is added, the connection of
which with the masses needs explanation. It is possible to understand
that Napoleon had power and so events occurred; with some effort one may
even conceive that Napoleon together with other influences was the cause
of an event; but how a book, Le Contrat Social, had the effect of making
Frenchmen begin to drown one another cannot be understood without an
explanation of the causal nexus of this new force with the event.

Undoubtedly some relation exists between all who live contemporaneously,
and so it is possible to find some connection between the intellectual
activity of men and their historical movements, just as such a
connection may be found between the movements of humanity and commerce,
handicraft, gardening, or anything else you please. But why intellectual
activity is considered by the historians of culture to be the cause or
expression of the whole historical movement is hard to understand.
Only the following considerations can have led the historians to such
a conclusion: (1) that history is written by learned men, and so it is
natural and agreeable for them to think that the activity of their class
supplies the basis of the movement of all humanity, just as a similar
belief is natural and agreeable to traders, agriculturists, and soldiers
(if they do not express it, that is merely because traders and soldiers
do not write history)
, and (2) that spiritual activity, enlightenment,
civilization, culture, ideas, are all indistinct, indefinite conceptions
under whose banner it is very easy to use words having a still less
definite meaning, and which can therefore be readily introduced into any
theory.

But not to speak of the intrinsic quality of histories of this kind
(which may possibly even be of use to someone for something) the
histories of culture, to which all general histories tend more and more
to approximate, are significant from the fact that after seriously
and minutely examining various religious, philosophic, and political
doctrines as causes of events, as soon as they have to describe an
actual historic event such as the campaign of 1812 for instance, they
involuntarily describe it as resulting from an exercise of power—and say
plainly that that was the result of Napoleon’s will. Speaking so, the
historians of culture involuntarily contradict themselves, and show that
the new force they have devised does not account for what happens in
history, and that history can only be explained by introducing a power
which they apparently do not recognize.

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Let's Analyse the Pattern

Pattern: The Expert Trap

The Expert Trap - When Authority Replaces Truth

When people become experts, they face a dangerous temptation: to explain everything within their domain, even when the real answer is 'I don't know.' Tolstoy exposes how historians fall into this trap, each group confidently explaining the same events through completely different lenses. The 'great man' historians blame leaders, the 'universal' historians blame multiple forces, and the 'cultural' historians blame ideas. But they're all doing the same thing—forcing complex reality into neat explanations that make them look knowledgeable. This happens because expertise creates pressure to have answers. Once someone is labeled an expert, admitting ignorance feels like professional suicide. So they develop elaborate theories that sound authoritative but often contradict each other or ignore obvious problems. The historian who credits Napoleon for victory must ignore that Russian historians credit Alexander for the same victory. They choose the explanation that fits their narrative, not the one that fits reality. You see this pattern everywhere today. Financial advisors confidently predict market movements that nobody can actually predict. Doctors sometimes order unnecessary tests rather than admit uncertainty. Management consultants propose solutions without fully understanding the problems. Political pundits explain election outcomes with absolute certainty, then offer equally confident but completely different explanations when their predictions fail. Even in your own workplace, watch how people in authority positions sometimes double down on bad decisions rather than admit they don't know the best path forward. When you encounter expert explanations, ask yourself: Does this person have real insight, or are they just avoiding saying 'I don't know'? Look for experts who admit uncertainty, who say 'this is complex' instead of offering simple causes for complicated effects. In your own life, resist the pressure to have all the answers. Sometimes the most intelligent response is acknowledging what you don't understand. When you can distinguish between real expertise and expert performance, you're thinking with amplified intelligence.

The tendency for people in authority positions to offer confident explanations rather than admit uncertainty, leading to contradictory or oversimplified theories.

Why This Matters

Connect literature to life

Skill: Detecting False Authority

This chapter teaches how to spot when someone claims expertise to avoid admitting uncertainty or complexity.

Practice This Today

This week, notice when experts give confident explanations for complicated problems—ask yourself what inconvenient facts they might be ignoring.

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Now let's explore the literary elements.

Key Quotes & Analysis

"What force moves the nations?"

— Narrator

Context: Tolstoy opens his philosophical examination of how history really works

This simple question cuts to the heart of human behavior and social change. Tolstoy is challenging readers to think beyond simple explanations about power and causation.

In Today's Words:

What actually makes millions of people do things together?

"The answers given by this kind of historian to the question of what force causes events to happen are satisfactory only as long as there is but one historian to each event."

— Narrator

Context: Explaining why 'great man' theories fall apart under scrutiny

Tolstoy reveals how expert explanations often only work in isolation. When multiple experts examine the same events, their contradictions expose the weakness of their theories.

In Today's Words:

These explanations only sound good until you hear what the other experts are saying.

"So the historians of this class, by mutually destroying one another's positions, destroy the understanding of the force which produces events."

— Narrator

Context: Describing how conflicting historical accounts cancel each other out

This shows how expert disagreement can actually make us less informed rather than more informed. When authorities contradict each other, we lose confidence in any explanation.

In Today's Words:

When the experts keep contradicting each other, we end up more confused than when we started.

Thematic Threads

Authority

In This Chapter

Tolstoy challenges the authority of historians who claim to understand what drives historical events

Development

Builds on earlier questioning of military and social authority figures

In Your Life:

You might see this when managers give confident explanations for company problems they don't really understand

Truth vs Narrative

In This Chapter

Different historians create completely different stories about the same events to fit their theories

Development

Extends the theme of how people construct self-serving narratives about reality

In Your Life:

You might notice this when family members tell very different versions of the same family conflict

Complexity

In This Chapter

Tolstoy argues that historical events are too complex to be reduced to simple causes

Development

Reflects the novel's consistent theme that human behavior and social change resist simple explanations

In Your Life:

You might recognize this when trying to understand why workplace relationships are difficult or family dynamics are complicated

Critical Thinking

In This Chapter

Tolstoy systematically examines and dismantles different approaches to understanding history

Development

Demonstrates the analytical skills he's been modeling throughout the novel

In Your Life:

You might apply this when evaluating conflicting advice from different sources about important life decisions

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You now have the context. Time to form your own thoughts.

Discussion Questions

  1. 1

    Tolstoy identifies three types of historians who all claim to explain the same events. What are these three types, and how do their explanations contradict each other?

    analysis • surface
  2. 2

    Why does Tolstoy compare historians to peasants explaining weather? What does this analogy reveal about how experts handle uncertainty?

    analysis • medium
  3. 3

    Think about a recent news event that different experts explained in completely different ways. What does this tell you about expert opinions?

    application • medium
  4. 4

    When have you felt pressure to have an answer even when you weren't sure? How did you handle it, and what would you do differently now?

    application • deep
  5. 5

    What does this chapter suggest about the difference between real knowledge and the performance of expertise?

    reflection • deep

Critical Thinking Exercise

10 minutes

Spot the Expert Performance

Choose a topic you've heard experts disagree about recently (politics, health, finances, parenting). Write down three different expert explanations you've encountered. For each explanation, identify what evidence they ignore or what contradictions they avoid addressing. Notice how each expert sounds confident despite the disagreement.

Consider:

  • •Look for experts who admit uncertainty versus those who claim absolute knowledge
  • •Notice whether experts change their explanations when proven wrong or double down
  • •Pay attention to whether the expert's confidence matches the complexity of the topic

Journaling Prompt

Write about a time when you realized an expert you trusted was wrong. How did that change how you evaluate expert advice? What questions do you now ask before accepting expert opinions?

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Coming Up Next...

Chapter 356: The Forces That Move History

Having demolished the conventional explanations for historical events, Tolstoy is ready to present his own revolutionary theory about what actually moves the masses and shapes human destiny.

Continue to Chapter 356
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The Problem with History Books
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The Forces That Move History

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