Summary
Montaigne tackles one of humanity's oldest bad habits: pretending we understand why things happen the way they do, especially when we invoke God or fate as our explanation. He starts with a sharp observation—the less we actually know about something, the more confidently people will bullshit about it. Think fortune tellers, astrologers, and those people who always seem to know exactly why bad things happen to others. Montaigne is particularly irritated by religious leaders who claim every victory proves God is on their side, then scramble to explain away defeats as 'divine tests.' He points to how people flip-flop their interpretations based on outcomes, using the same events to prove opposite points. The essay includes a fascinating example of an Indian culture that simply apologizes to their sun god when battles go badly, accepting that they can't understand divine will. Montaigne argues this humble approach is far healthier than our constant need to make everything fit our narrative. He warns that when we tie our faith to worldly success, we set ourselves up for crisis when things go wrong. The chapter reveals Montaigne's core philosophy: embrace uncertainty, be suspicious of anyone claiming special insight into cosmic purposes, and focus on living well rather than explaining why the universe works as it does. This isn't atheism—it's intellectual humility dressed as practical wisdom.
Coming Up in Chapter 32
From the dangers of claiming divine knowledge, Montaigne turns to an equally thorny question: when is it worth sacrificing pleasure, comfort, or even life itself for our principles? The next essay explores the complex relationship between what we want and what we believe we should want.
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An excerpt from the original text.(~500 words)
THAT A MAN IS SOBERLY TO JUDGE OF THE DIVINE ORDINANCES The true field and subject of imposture are things unknown, forasmuch as, in the first place, their very strangeness lends them credit, and moreover, by not being subjected to our ordinary reasons, they deprive us of the means to question and dispute them: For which reason, says Plato, --[In Critias.]--it is much more easy to satisfy the hearers, when speaking of the nature of the gods than of the nature of men, because the ignorance of the auditory affords a fair and large career and all manner of liberty in the handling of abstruse things. Thence it comes to pass, that nothing is so firmly believed, as what we least know; nor any people so confident, as those who entertain us with fables, such as your alchemists, judicial astrologers, fortune-tellers, and physicians, “Id genus omne.” [“All that sort of people.”--Horace, Sat., i. 2, 2.] To which I would willingly, if I durst, join a pack of people that take upon them to interpret and control the designs of God Himself, pretending to find out the cause of every accident, and to pry into the secrets of the divine will, there to discover the incomprehensible motive, of His works; and although the variety, and the continual discordance of events, throw them from corner to corner, and toss them from east to west, yet do they still persist in their vain inquisition, and with the same pencil to paint black and white. In a nation of the Indies, there is this commendable custom, that when anything befalls them amiss in any encounter or battle, they publicly ask pardon of the sun, who is their god, as having committed an unjust action, always imputing their good or evil fortune to the divine justice, and to that submitting their own judgment and reason. ‘Tis enough for a Christian to believe that all things come from God, to receive them with acknowledgment of His divine and inscrutable wisdom, and also thankfully to accept and receive them, with what face soever they may present themselves. But I do not approve of what I see in use, that is, to seek to affirm and support our religion by the prosperity of our enterprises. Our belief has other foundation enough, without going about to authorise it by events: for the people being accustomed to such plausible arguments as these and so proper to their taste, it is to be feared, lest when they fail of success they should also stagger in their faith: as in the war wherein we are now engaged upon the account of religion, those who had the better in the business of Rochelabeille,--[May 1569.]--making great brags of that success as an infallible approbation of their cause, when they came afterwards to excuse their misfortunes of Moncontour and Jarnac, by saying they were fatherly scourges and corrections that they had not a people wholly at their mercy, they make it manifestly enough appear, what...
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Intelligence Amplifier™ Analysis
The Road of False Certainty
The less someone actually knows about a situation, the more confident they become in their explanations for why it happened.
Why This Matters
Connect literature to life
This chapter teaches how to recognize when someone's confidence about complex situations is inversely related to their actual knowledge.
Practice This Today
This week, notice when the person speaking most confidently about a situation has the least direct experience with it, then seek out those who admit 'I don't know' or 'It's complicated.'
Now let's explore the literary elements.
Terms to Know
Divine Ordinances
God's will or divine plan - the idea that everything happens for a reason according to God's design. In Montaigne's time, people constantly claimed to understand God's intentions behind events.
Modern Usage:
We see this when people say 'everything happens for a reason' or claim natural disasters are divine punishment.
Imposture
Fraud or deception, especially by people claiming special knowledge they don't actually have. Montaigne uses this for anyone pretending to understand mysteries beyond human comprehension.
Modern Usage:
Think of psychics, conspiracy theorists, or anyone selling certainty about unpredictable things.
Judicial Astrologers
People who claimed they could predict the future and judge character by studying the stars and planets. They were the fortune-tellers of Montaigne's era, often advising rulers.
Modern Usage:
Today's horoscope writers, life coaches who make grand predictions, or anyone claiming the universe has a plan for you.
Alchemists
Medieval pseudo-scientists who claimed they could turn base metals into gold and discover the secrets of life. They mixed real chemistry with magical thinking.
Modern Usage:
Modern equivalent would be get-rich-quick scheme promoters or wellness gurus promising miracle cures.
Vain Inquisition
Pointless investigation or questioning - specifically, humans trying to figure out God's unknowable motives. Montaigne sees this as both arrogant and futile.
Modern Usage:
Like endlessly analyzing why bad things happen to good people or trying to find cosmic meaning in random events.
Continual Discordance
The constant contradiction between what people predict will happen and what actually occurs. Events keep proving the fortune-tellers wrong, but they keep making new predictions.
Modern Usage:
Political pundits who are wrong about elections but keep making confident predictions, or economic forecasters who miss every recession.
Characters in This Chapter
Plato
Ancient authority
Montaigne quotes Plato's observation that it's easier to fool people when talking about gods than about humans, since no one can fact-check divine matters. This supports Montaigne's argument about religious imposture.
Modern Equivalent:
The respected academic whose quote gets used to back up arguments
Fortune-tellers
Professional deceivers
Montaigne lumps them with other frauds who exploit human ignorance. They represent everyone who claims special insight into the unknowable future or divine will.
Modern Equivalent:
Psychic hotline operators or social media influencers promising to reveal your destiny
Religious Interpreters
Self-appointed divine spokesmen
These are the people Montaigne most wants to criticize - those who claim to understand and explain God's purposes. They're the main target of his essay.
Modern Equivalent:
Televangelists or anyone who claims disasters happen because God is angry
Key Quotes & Analysis
"nothing is so firmly believed, as what we least know"
Context: Explaining why people are most confident about mysterious topics
This captures human psychology perfectly - we're most certain about things we can't verify. It's Montaigne's key insight about how ignorance breeds false confidence.
In Today's Words:
The less we actually understand something, the more sure we are that we've got it figured out.
"the ignorance of the auditory affords a fair and large career and all manner of liberty"
Context: Explaining why religious topics are perfect for con artists
When your audience can't fact-check you, you can say anything. This reveals how spiritual authority often depends on keeping people in the dark.
In Today's Words:
If your audience doesn't know the subject, you can make up whatever sounds good.
"they still persist in their vain inquisition, and with the same pencil to paint black and white"
Context: Describing how religious interpreters flip their explanations based on outcomes
Even when constantly proven wrong, these interpreters keep going, using the same methods to reach opposite conclusions. It shows how ideology trumps evidence.
In Today's Words:
They keep using the same broken logic to explain completely different results, painting everything to fit their story.
Thematic Threads
Intellectual Humility
In This Chapter
Montaigne advocates for accepting uncertainty rather than creating false explanations for complex events
Development
Introduced here as core philosophy
In Your Life:
You might notice this when you catch yourself making up reasons for why things happened instead of admitting you don't know
Religious Authority
In This Chapter
Religious leaders flip explanations based on outcomes, claiming victories prove divine favor while defeats are divine tests
Development
Introduced here
In Your Life:
You see this when authority figures change their explanations to match results rather than admitting they were wrong
Social Performance
In This Chapter
People perform certainty and cosmic understanding to appear wise and maintain social status
Development
Introduced here
In Your Life:
You might recognize this when you feel pressure to have explanations for things you don't actually understand
Narrative Construction
In This Chapter
Humans create elaborate stories to explain random events, especially when invoking fate or divine will
Development
Introduced here
In Your Life:
You see this when you or others construct meaning from coincidences or try to find lessons in random bad luck
Cultural Wisdom
In This Chapter
Montaigne praises cultures that simply apologize to gods for failures rather than claiming to understand divine will
Development
Introduced here
In Your Life:
You might apply this by saying 'I was wrong' or 'I don't know' instead of creating elaborate justifications for mistakes
You now have the context. Time to form your own thoughts.
Discussion Questions
- 1
Why does Montaigne say people become more confident in their explanations when they understand less about a situation?
analysis • surface - 2
What's the difference between how religious leaders explain victories versus defeats, and why does this pattern bother Montaigne?
analysis • medium - 3
Where do you see this 'false certainty' pattern in your daily life - at work, in family discussions, or on social media?
application • medium - 4
When facing a difficult situation you don't understand, how could you respond without creating elaborate explanations or invoking fate?
application • deep - 5
What does Montaigne's preference for the Indians who simply apologize to their sun god reveal about healthy ways to handle uncertainty?
reflection • deep
Critical Thinking Exercise
Track Your Explanation Patterns
Think of a recent difficult situation in your life - a relationship conflict, work problem, or family issue. Write down the explanations you gave yourself or others about why it happened. Now identify which explanations are based on things you actually know versus theories you constructed to feel more in control. Circle the theories and consider what 'I don't know, but here's what I can control' would look like instead.
Consider:
- •Notice if your confidence level matches your actual knowledge of the situation
- •Pay attention to whether you're invoking fate, karma, or 'everything happens for a reason' to avoid uncertainty
- •Consider whether your explanations help you take useful action or just make you feel better
Journaling Prompt
Write about a time when someone gave you very confident advice about a situation they had never experienced themselves. How did their certainty affect your decision-making, and what would have been more helpful?
Coming Up Next...
Chapter 32: When Death Becomes the Ultimate Exit Strategy
The coming pages reveal ancient philosophers viewed death as a tool for life decisions, and teach us extreme solutions sometimes reveal our deepest values. These discoveries help us navigate similar situations in our own lives.