An excerpt from the original text.(complete · 722 words)
f we assume as the historians do that great men lead humanity to the
attainment of certain ends—the greatness of Russia or of France,
the balance of power in Europe, the diffusion of the ideas of the
Revolution, general progress, or anything else—then it is impossible
to explain the facts of history without introducing the conceptions of
chance and genius.
If the aim of the European wars at the beginning of the nineteenth
century had been the aggrandizement of Russia, that aim might have been
accomplished without all the preceding wars and without the invasion. If
the aim was the aggrandizement of France, that might have been attained
without the Revolution and without the Empire. If the aim was the
dissemination of ideas, the printing press could have accomplished that
much better than warfare. If the aim was the progress of civilization,
it is easy to see that there are other ways of diffusing civilization
more expedient than by the destruction of wealth and of human lives.
Why did it happen in this and not in some other way?
Because it happened so! “Chance created the situation; genius utilized
it,” says history.
But what is chance? What is genius?
The words chance and genius do not denote any really existing thing and
therefore cannot be defined. Those words only denote a certain stage of
understanding of phenomena. I do not know why a certain event occurs; I
think that I cannot know it; so I do not try to know it and I talk about
chance. I see a force producing effects beyond the scope of ordinary
human agencies; I do not understand why this occurs and I talk of
genius.
To a herd of rams, the ram the herdsman drives each evening into a
special enclosure to feed and that becomes twice as fat as the others
must seem to be a genius. And it must appear an astonishing conjunction
of genius with a whole series of extraordinary chances that this ram,
who instead of getting into the general fold every evening goes into a
special enclosure where there are oats—that this very ram, swelling with
fat, is killed for meat.
But the rams need only cease to suppose that all that happens to them
happens solely for the attainment of their sheepish aims; they need only
admit that what happens to them may also have purposes beyond their ken,
and they will at once perceive a unity and coherence in what happened
to the ram that was fattened. Even if they do not know for what purpose
they are fattened, they will at least know that all that happened to the
ram did not happen accidentally, and will no longer need the conceptions
of chance or genius.
Only by renouncing our claim to discern a purpose immediately
intelligible to us, and admitting the ultimate purpose to be beyond our
ken, may we discern the sequence of experiences in the lives of
historic characters and perceive the cause of the effect they produce
(incommensurable with ordinary human capabilities), and then the words
chance and genius become superfluous.
We need only confess that we do not know the purpose of the European
convulsions and that we know only the facts—that is, the murders, first
in France, then in Italy, in Africa, in Prussia, in Austria, in Spain,
and in Russia—and that the movements from the west to the east and from
the east to the west form the essence and purpose of these events, and
not only shall we have no need to see exceptional ability and genius in
Napoleon and Alexander, but we shall be unable to consider them to
be anything but like other men, and we shall not be obliged to have
recourse to chance for an explanation of those small events which made
these people what they were, but it will be clear that all those small
events were inevitable.
By discarding a claim to knowledge of the ultimate purpose, we shall
clearly perceive that just as one cannot imagine a blossom or seed for
any single plant better suited to it than those it produces, so it is
impossible to imagine any two people more completely adapted down to the
smallest detail for the purpose they had to fulfill, than Napoleon and
Alexander with all their antecedents.
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Let's Analyse the Pattern
Using 'luck' and 'genius' as explanations when we can't see the larger forces and patterns actually driving outcomes.
Why This Matters
Connect literature to life
This chapter teaches how to recognize when 'luck' and 'genius' are being used to avoid real analysis.
Practice This Today
This week, notice when you or others use these words—then ask what specific factors actually created the outcome.
Now let's explore the literary elements.
Key Quotes & Analysis
"The words chance and genius do not denote any really existing thing and therefore cannot be defined."
Context: Tolstoy is explaining why historical explanations based on these concepts are meaningless
This cuts to the heart of Tolstoy's argument—we use these words to avoid admitting we don't understand something. They're intellectual shortcuts that stop us from looking deeper.
In Today's Words:
When we say someone got lucky or they're a genius, we're basically saying 'I have no idea how that actually happened.'
"Chance created the situation; genius utilized it, says history."
Context: Tolstoy is summarizing how historians typically explain major events
He's showing how historians use these two concepts as a catch-all explanation for anything they can't understand, which isn't really explaining anything at all.
In Today's Words:
History books basically say 'stuff happened randomly, then smart people took advantage'—which explains nothing.
"I do not know why a certain event occurs; I think that I cannot know it; so I do not try to know it."
Context: Tolstoy is advocating for intellectual honesty about the limits of human understanding
This represents true wisdom—admitting ignorance instead of creating false explanations. It's the foundation for his alternative view of history.
In Today's Words:
Sometimes you just have to admit you don't know why something happened instead of making up reasons.
Thematic Threads
Understanding
In This Chapter
Tolstoy argues that historians use 'chance' and 'genius' because they don't truly understand the forces driving historical events
Development
Building on earlier themes about the complexity of human motivation and the limits of individual control
In Your Life:
You might find yourself attributing others' success to luck when you don't see all the work and circumstances behind it
Perspective
In This Chapter
The sheep analogy shows how limited viewpoint makes events seem random when they're actually part of a larger plan
Development
Continues the book's exploration of how individual perspective limits understanding of larger forces
In Your Life:
Your current struggles or successes might make more sense when viewed as part of a longer-term pattern
Humility
In This Chapter
Tolstoy suggests accepting that we don't understand ultimate purposes rather than creating false explanations
Development
Reinforces the theme of human limitations in understanding complex systems
In Your Life:
Admitting 'I don't know why this happened' can be more honest and useful than making up simple explanations
Inevitability
In This Chapter
Historical figures weren't lucky or genius—they were shaped by countless small events that made them perfect for their roles
Development
Extends the book's theme about how individual actions fit into larger historical patterns
In Your Life:
Your own path might seem more purposeful when you see how past experiences prepared you for current challenges
You now have the context. Time to form your own thoughts.
Discussion Questions
- 1
According to Tolstoy, what do we really mean when we explain events through 'chance' and 'genius'?
analysis • surface - 2
How does the sheep analogy help us understand why we miss the bigger patterns in our own lives?
analysis • medium - 3
Think of someone you know who succeeded. What 'invisible factors' might have contributed that others called 'luck' or 'natural talent'?
application • medium - 4
When you face a setback, how might looking for larger patterns help you respond differently than just blaming bad luck?
application • deep - 5
What does this chapter suggest about accepting our limited perspective while still taking responsibility for our actions?
reflection • deep
Critical Thinking Exercise
Track the Real Story Behind Success
Think of someone whose success you've attributed to luck or genius. Write down their story again, but this time list every small factor you can think of that contributed: their background, opportunities they took, failures they learned from, people who helped, timing of events. Look for the invisible pattern behind what seemed like chance.
Consider:
- •Don't dismiss their effort by finding external factors - both personal choices and circumstances matter
- •Notice how many 'lucky breaks' actually required them to be prepared when opportunity came
- •Consider what this reveals about creating your own conditions for success
Journaling Prompt
Write about a time when others credited your success to luck or natural ability. What invisible work, preparation, or circumstances actually made the difference? How might understanding this help you replicate success in other areas?
Coming Up Next...
Chapter 340: The Making of a Conqueror
Having dismantled our illusions about chance and genius, Tolstoy now turns to examine what really drives the great movements of history—and it's not what we think.
