Summary
Tolstoy steps back from the story to ask a fundamental question: why do historians explain everything through 'chance' and 'genius'? He argues these words are just fancy ways of saying 'I don't know.' When we can't understand why something happened, we call it chance. When someone achieves beyond normal human capability, we call it genius. But these aren't real explanations—they're intellectual shortcuts. Tolstoy uses a brilliant analogy about sheep: imagine rams watching one of their own get special treatment, growing fat, then getting slaughtered. To the other rams, this one seems like a genius who lucked into good fortune. But if they could see the bigger picture—that the farmer has purposes beyond their understanding—they'd realize it wasn't chance or genius at all, just part of a larger plan. The same applies to history. We don't need to see Napoleon and Alexander as superhuman geniuses or lucky beneficiaries of chance. If we admit we don't understand the ultimate purpose behind historical events, we can see that these men were simply perfectly suited for their roles in a larger pattern. Every small event that shaped them was inevitable, not accidental. This perspective transforms how we view both history and our own lives—instead of crediting mysterious forces, we can accept that we're part of something bigger than we can fully comprehend.
Coming Up in Chapter 340
Having dismantled our illusions about chance and genius, Tolstoy now turns to examine what really drives the great movements of history—and it's not what we think.
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An excerpt from the original text.(~500 words)
F we assume as the historians do that great men lead humanity to the attainment of certain ends—the greatness of Russia or of France, the balance of power in Europe, the diffusion of the ideas of the Revolution, general progress, or anything else—then it is impossible to explain the facts of history without introducing the conceptions of chance and genius. If the aim of the European wars at the beginning of the nineteenth century had been the aggrandizement of Russia, that aim might have been accomplished without all the preceding wars and without the invasion. If the aim was the aggrandizement of France, that might have been attained without the Revolution and without the Empire. If the aim was the dissemination of ideas, the printing press could have accomplished that much better than warfare. If the aim was the progress of civilization, it is easy to see that there are other ways of diffusing civilization more expedient than by the destruction of wealth and of human lives. Why did it happen in this and not in some other way? Because it happened so! “Chance created the situation; genius utilized it,” says history. But what is chance? What is genius? The words chance and genius do not denote any really existing thing and therefore cannot be defined. Those words only denote a certain stage of understanding of phenomena. I do not know why a certain event occurs; I think that I cannot know it; so I do not try to know it and I talk about chance. I see a force producing effects beyond the scope of ordinary human agencies; I do not understand why this occurs and I talk of genius. To a herd of rams, the ram the herdsman drives each evening into a special enclosure to feed and that becomes twice as fat as the others must seem to be a genius. And it must appear an astonishing conjunction of genius with a whole series of extraordinary chances that this ram, who instead of getting into the general fold every evening goes into a special enclosure where there are oats—that this very ram, swelling with fat, is killed for meat. But the rams need only cease to suppose that all that happens to them happens solely for the attainment of their sheepish aims; they need only admit that what happens to them may also have purposes beyond their ken, and they will at once perceive a unity and coherence in what happened to the ram that was fattened. Even if they do not know for what purpose they are fattened, they will at least know that all that happened to the ram did not happen accidentally, and will no longer need the conceptions of chance or genius. Only by renouncing our claim to discern a purpose immediately intelligible to us, and admitting the ultimate purpose to be beyond our ken, may we discern the sequence of experiences in the lives of historic characters and perceive the cause of...
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Intelligence Amplifier™ Analysis
The Road of False Explanations - Why We Hide Behind 'Luck' and 'Genius'
Using 'luck' and 'genius' as explanations when we can't see the larger forces and patterns actually driving outcomes.
Why This Matters
Connect literature to life
This chapter teaches how to recognize when 'luck' and 'genius' are being used to avoid real analysis.
Practice This Today
This week, notice when you or others use these words—then ask what specific factors actually created the outcome.
Now let's explore the literary elements.
Terms to Know
Great Man Theory of History
The idea that history is shaped primarily by exceptional individuals—kings, generals, geniuses—who single-handedly change the course of events. Tolstoy argues this is a lazy way to explain complex historical forces.
Modern Usage:
We still do this when we credit CEOs for company success or blame presidents for everything that happens during their term.
Historical Determinism
The belief that events happen because of larger forces and patterns, not random chance or individual genius. Everything that occurs was bound to happen given the circumstances.
Modern Usage:
Like saying someone was 'in the right place at the right time'—maybe it wasn't luck, but inevitable given their background and the situation.
Chance vs. Causation
The difference between random luck and events that happen for underlying reasons we don't understand. Tolstoy argues what we call 'chance' is usually just causation we can't see.
Modern Usage:
When we say someone 'got lucky' with a job or relationship, we might be missing all the preparation and circumstances that made it inevitable.
Genius
According to Tolstoy, not superhuman ability, but being perfectly suited for a particular moment in history. The right person with the right skills appearing when those skills are needed.
Modern Usage:
Like how some entrepreneurs seem like geniuses but were really just the right person at the right time when technology and market conditions aligned.
Historiography
The study of how history is written and interpreted. Tolstoy criticizes historians for using simple explanations like 'genius' and 'chance' instead of admitting they don't understand complex causes.
Modern Usage:
Similar to how news media often oversimplifies complex events with catchphrases and blame single people for systemic problems.
Intellectual Humility
Admitting when you don't know something instead of making up explanations. Tolstoy argues this is more honest than pretending 'chance' and 'genius' are real explanations.
Modern Usage:
Like saying 'I don't know why that happened' instead of making up reasons or blaming luck when something goes wrong at work.
Characters in This Chapter
The Historian (collective)
Intellectual target
Represents traditional historical thinking that Tolstoy is criticizing. They explain events through 'great men' and lucky breaks instead of deeper patterns.
Modern Equivalent:
The pundit who explains everything with simple soundbites
Napoleon
Historical example
Used as an example of someone historians call a 'genius' who shaped history, but Tolstoy argues he was just the right person for his moment in history.
Modern Equivalent:
The celebrity CEO everyone thinks is a visionary genius
Key Quotes & Analysis
"The words chance and genius do not denote any really existing thing and therefore cannot be defined."
Context: Tolstoy is explaining why historical explanations based on these concepts are meaningless
This cuts to the heart of Tolstoy's argument—we use these words to avoid admitting we don't understand something. They're intellectual shortcuts that stop us from looking deeper.
In Today's Words:
When we say someone got lucky or they're a genius, we're basically saying 'I have no idea how that actually happened.'
"Chance created the situation; genius utilized it, says history."
Context: Tolstoy is summarizing how historians typically explain major events
He's showing how historians use these two concepts as a catch-all explanation for anything they can't understand, which isn't really explaining anything at all.
In Today's Words:
History books basically say 'stuff happened randomly, then smart people took advantage'—which explains nothing.
"I do not know why a certain event occurs; I think that I cannot know it; so I do not try to know it."
Context: Tolstoy is advocating for intellectual honesty about the limits of human understanding
This represents true wisdom—admitting ignorance instead of creating false explanations. It's the foundation for his alternative view of history.
In Today's Words:
Sometimes you just have to admit you don't know why something happened instead of making up reasons.
Thematic Threads
Understanding
In This Chapter
Tolstoy argues that historians use 'chance' and 'genius' because they don't truly understand the forces driving historical events
Development
Building on earlier themes about the complexity of human motivation and the limits of individual control
In Your Life:
You might find yourself attributing others' success to luck when you don't see all the work and circumstances behind it
Perspective
In This Chapter
The sheep analogy shows how limited viewpoint makes events seem random when they're actually part of a larger plan
Development
Continues the book's exploration of how individual perspective limits understanding of larger forces
In Your Life:
Your current struggles or successes might make more sense when viewed as part of a longer-term pattern
Humility
In This Chapter
Tolstoy suggests accepting that we don't understand ultimate purposes rather than creating false explanations
Development
Reinforces the theme of human limitations in understanding complex systems
In Your Life:
Admitting 'I don't know why this happened' can be more honest and useful than making up simple explanations
Inevitability
In This Chapter
Historical figures weren't lucky or genius—they were shaped by countless small events that made them perfect for their roles
Development
Extends the book's theme about how individual actions fit into larger historical patterns
In Your Life:
Your own path might seem more purposeful when you see how past experiences prepared you for current challenges
You now have the context. Time to form your own thoughts.
Discussion Questions
- 1
According to Tolstoy, what do we really mean when we explain events through 'chance' and 'genius'?
analysis • surface - 2
How does the sheep analogy help us understand why we miss the bigger patterns in our own lives?
analysis • medium - 3
Think of someone you know who succeeded. What 'invisible factors' might have contributed that others called 'luck' or 'natural talent'?
application • medium - 4
When you face a setback, how might looking for larger patterns help you respond differently than just blaming bad luck?
application • deep - 5
What does this chapter suggest about accepting our limited perspective while still taking responsibility for our actions?
reflection • deep
Critical Thinking Exercise
Track the Real Story Behind Success
Think of someone whose success you've attributed to luck or genius. Write down their story again, but this time list every small factor you can think of that contributed: their background, opportunities they took, failures they learned from, people who helped, timing of events. Look for the invisible pattern behind what seemed like chance.
Consider:
- •Don't dismiss their effort by finding external factors - both personal choices and circumstances matter
- •Notice how many 'lucky breaks' actually required them to be prepared when opportunity came
- •Consider what this reveals about creating your own conditions for success
Journaling Prompt
Write about a time when others credited your success to luck or natural ability. What invisible work, preparation, or circumstances actually made the difference? How might understanding this help you replicate success in other areas?
Coming Up Next...
Chapter 340: The Making of a Conqueror
In the next chapter, you'll discover circumstances can elevate ordinary people to extraordinary power, and learn societies sometimes embrace leaders who justify terrible actions. These insights reveal timeless patterns that resonate in our own lives and relationships.